The U.S. is at increased risk of a firepower gap with China as U.S. production of explosives and propellants declines and China’s increases.
This month, Forbes reported that China had surpassed the United States in developing new types of explosives, particularly its version of CL-20, an explosive developed in the 1980s that is 40% more powerful than RDX or the HMX and has widely used in American munitions since World War II.
In 2011, China reportedly conducted tests of an explosive similar to CL-20, and since then, the country has been producing the explosive in large quantities.
Rather, the article claims that nearly all U.S. military explosives are manufactured at a U.S. Army plant in Holston, Tennessee, using World War II-style mixing systems and production techniques. He also points out that newer explosives, such as CL-20, cannot be made using these outdated methods and can only be produced in small quantities in chemical reactors.
The report also mentions that the U.S. can make 10 tons of CL-20 per year with its current reserves of precursor chemicals, but the widespread use of CL-20 will require a production rate of 1,000 tons per year, and U.S. industries will need three to five years to expand it.
Forbes points out that the United States relies on China as the sole source for half a dozen chemical ingredients used in its explosives and military propellants and on other worrisome countries for another dozen, calling into question the security of American energy supply chains.
In addition, the article notes that China has developed new explosives and propellants that burn more efficiently, meaning that in the event of a crisis in Taiwan, the United States will face an influx of Chinese missiles, some of which will be more powerful and have a greater range than the U.S. arsenal.
The invention of cross-media weapons and thermobaric weapons are two examples of China’s energy-related progress.
The Asia Times claimed in September 2022 that China had created a hybrid missile-torpedo that could travel at Mach 2.5 at 10,000 meters, switch to sea-skimming mode for 20 kilometers, and then transition to supercavitation mode for the final 10 kilometers to the target.
To create this weapon, scientists in China developed a novel solid-fuel ramjet engine powered by boron. It incorporates several innovations, including a higher boron content (two times that of conventional ramjet fuel rods) and multiple coatings on the nano fuel’s particles (which regulate their explosive properties).
They also state that there is no defense against an attack through the medium, as it can change course at will or dive up to 100 meters to avoid ships’ defenses.
In addition, China has been developing thermobaric weapons that use air oxygen as an oxidizer for an aerosolized explosion. Thermobaric weapons generate a significantly greater and more potent explosion than ordinary explosives, followed by a debilitating vacuum effect.
The Warzone stated in November 2022 that China had created a gigantic air-dropped thermobaric bomb similar to the U.S. GBU-43/B Massive Ordnance Air Blast (MOAB) and the Russian Aircraft Thermobaric Bomb of Increased Power (ATBIP).
The report claims this is the largest conventional bomb China possesses. Its large and powerful blast can obliterate fortified ground targets, instantly create helicopter landing zones, or serve as a potent psychological weapon due to its enormous destructive power.
Given China’s advances in energy matters, Sean Carberry, in an article published in June 2022 by National Defense Magazine, warns that the United States could be at a disadvantage in a confrontation with China because the U.S. plans and ships the country carries ammunition that can travel farther. Those weapons get smaller and lighter but pack more punch.
While the United States was a powerhouse in the energy industry during World War II and the Cold War, Carberry argues that the end of those wars and the advent of the Global War on Terror led to a decline in demand for innovative energy supplies due to a shift in strategic priorities away from long-range, heavy weapons and towards counterinsurgency tactics and targeted strikes.
The U.S.’s ability to ensure that Ukraine and Taiwan have sufficient weapons for a protracted fight against Russia and China has taken a hit due to the loss of production capacity for energy items.
The Economist noted that the United States could make 180,000 155-millimeter artillery rounds yearly. Europe could produce 300,000 cartridges, representing barely three months of Ukraine’s artillery cartridge spending.
European enterprises still have to sign purchase contracts, despite the fact that both the United States and Europe have promised to increase artillery cartridge manufacturing. Europe is even considering restarting historic artillery cartridge production lines from the Soviet era.
Defense One reported this month that a lack of machine tools limits the production capacity of artillery cartridges in the United States. Precision machining is vital for artillery shells, as any imperfections in the shell’s casing shape will cause an erratic flight to the target.
The article notes that while the United States has abundant raw materials for manufacturing artillery shells, the long lead time required to acquire artillery shell case machining tools delays the increase in production.
According to a report published by the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) in January 2023, the United States is likely to exhaust its existing supply of munitions should a situation involving Taiwan arise. The United States could not sustain a fight in Taiwan for over a week without running out of long-range precision-guided weapons.
In contrast to China, which invests in munitions and high-end weapon systems five to six times quicker than the United States, the CSIS notes that the U.S. defense industrial base requires more reaction capacity for a prolonged fight.
The CSIS report notes that these shortcomings ultimately undermine the effectiveness of deterrence, as the concept relies on sufficient weapons and weapon systems arsenals.
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